Trials Population?

3381 Views 47 Replies 31 Participants Last post by jeph, Jul 16, 2005

Pancho

Discussion Starter · Dec 21, 2003

Josh Stevenson, Josh Carr, Elan, Mike C, Patrick, Theo and I were discussing this sport of ours over lunch yesterday, more specifically if and when trials would ever become a mainstream sport. Regardless of what each of us thought, I began to wonder just how big our sport is.

So here is my question for the rest of you: how many people in the United States can be considered trials riders?

What about just in Colorado? or all of North America?

But this raises the question; what defines a trials rider. Someone who owns a trials bike? someone who can back wheel hop? someone who occasionally rides their XC bike in a trials way? What about somebody who rode trials 10 years ago?

If we only consider Sport level riders and above, who have ridden in the last 6 months, my rough guess would be somewhere around 5000 in the United States. This is based on the fact that Colorado alone probably has under 200 people who match the above criteria, and guessing that Colorado probably has more riders than all of the other states excepting possibly California, I'd estimate that on average each of the 50 states probably has around 100 riders. Thus 50x100 equals 5000.

Who knows, I'm probably WAY off. Tell me what you guys think.

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DanBowhers

· #2 · Dec 22, 2003

I'd say smaller. Soley based not on how many people enter comps so much as how few comps there are. Granted there are "Comp hot spots" Mainly in CO, New England, PA Area, Southern-Mid CA, and Parts of the south. I feel as though there was this equal distribution of about 100 people per state there would be more contests in the midwest and other areas that I failed to mention.

I dunno how accurate my hypothesis is either, but it seems like the entire EFTA series is aimed to entertain the competiton desires of no more than the 200 trials riders in the NH, MA, ME, CT region...

Pancho

Discussion Starter · #3 · Dec 22, 2003

My guess would also be less than 5000, but I was trying to be pretty liberal. In some ways that seems like a lot, but in others that seems incredibly small.

That means roughly 1.6 people out of every hundred thousand rides trials.

ascentrek

· #4 · Dec 22, 2003

Pancho said:
That means roughly 1.6 people out of every hundred thousand rides trials.

I don't know that its even that much. There's a ton of people in the mid-west that haven't graduated beyond their original huffy.

Check with Webcyclery and see if they've done any market research. Interesting question though.

AgrAde

· #5 · Dec 22, 2003

over here its very close to 1.5 to every 100,000 people. aroundabout 60 riders in a place of 4 million.

Elan

· #6 · Dec 22, 2003

as for being considered a trials rider: i would consider anybody who has enough interest in trials to spend at least $5 of their hard earnerd (or not) money, and spend any real time on learning a move, can be considered a statistic in the trials scene.

Pancho

Discussion Starter · #7 · Dec 22, 2003

over here its very close to 1.5 to every 100,000 people. aroundabout 60 riders in a place of 4 million.

Well then I'm pretty sure that we are under 1.6 per 100000, because the demographics of a place like New Zealand would certainly provide a lot more hospitable place for trials that the US. My rough guess is somewhere around 3500 to 4000.

afrobot

· #8 · Dec 22, 2003

By the time we have come to an agreement 3 will have quit and one
started.

AgrAde

· #9 · Dec 23, 2003

Pancho said:
over here its very close to 1.5 to every 100,000 people. aroundabout 60 riders in a place of 4 million.

Click to expand...

Well then I'm pretty sure that we are under 1.6 per 100000, because the demographics of a place like New Zealand would certainly provide a lot more hospitable place for trials that the US. My rough guess is somewhere around 3500 to 4000.

i really dont know about that. trials is still really quite new here compared with other places, and theres only good riding in the south island where probably 75% of our riders are. (im in the north, which basically formed from a huge mudflat :ugh2: )
so i dont see terrain making a big difference in the number of riders here, basically because north = flat and grass, and thats where most of our people are.

Pancho

Discussion Starter · #10 · Dec 23, 2003

I didn't mean terrain, just rather society. Why is Europe so much better? Their society encourages people to be active and try sports that are on the fringe. Americans IN GENERAL aren't as active as the rest of the world

AgrAde

· #11 · Dec 23, 2003

ah i see. well in that case, i guess you may have a point. at least trials is growing here! i even convinced some random guy to buy a monty a little while ago.

its kinda funny, new zealanders in general are bums that cant be bothered working. we have had a MASSIVE increase in asian people over here - theyre almost garuanteed a good job because theyre all so much more hardworking than us NZers. i guess you are right, we must be more interested in our hobbies.

either way, theres nothing to ride. my home district is called 'te mata', it means "the swamp" in maori (the polynesians that immigrated here before the english)

theres about 20 "te mata's" in the north island... heh

trialscoach

· #12 · Dec 24, 2003

FYI:these are the numbers we use when making presentations to USAC-

Trials enthusiasts in US: 5000
Competition enthusiasts:500
USAC licensed riders: 250

We compiled these stats after questioning several industry experts(OTM mag, Hansy, Lenosky,major promoters Sea Otter, Mammoth, etc) and I agree that we're very close. Sadly these numbers haven't changed in five years, but I have a feeling we're on the cusp of an upward trend. We're getting more exposure and manufacturer support every year and thats bound to swell our ranks eventually. I'd be very curious to check the opinion of some of the web-based retailers since their databases may reflect a more accurate assessment than we've been able to cull on our own.

squirrel

· #13 · Dec 24, 2003

Hey, on your NORBA license you must select a trials level correct? (I know it was like that a few years ago) Maybe you can use those potential huge numbers too in presentations.

SteveR1960

· #14 · Dec 24, 2003

I would think lack of exposure to the sport can't help in the US. I just learned of the entire sport 2 months ago when I bought the video - West Coast Style. I was just looking to improve my mountain biking (or should I say forest riding) skills. In the video, they feature Robin Coope and Ryan Leech. The video has been influential to me in that I have learned a few basic techniques and sought out trials videos/web sites to learn more.

My 4 year old son finds the videos fscinating and already wants to remove his training wheeels so he can learn to track stand. Given the lack of a trials community in my area, I wonder if he will seriously take up the sport some day. No other mountain biker I spoke to in the area had even heard of trials.

Steve

stonee

· #15 · Dec 24, 2003

in atlantic canada, of the four provinces, they may be 15. in my city there is about 6-7.

Pancho

Discussion Starter · #16 · Dec 24, 2003

Wow, I got a lucky guess then. What do I win?

It's hard for me to tell whether trials is growing or not. If you asked me to judge just by looking at the local scene, I'd say that it is on the decline. The first group ride I went on in Colorado Springs there were easily 10 trials riders, and now we are lucky to get 4 or 5. I think on the whole though the growth of free-riding and DH will help trials grow. The more people that get away from XC, the more people will look to trials I think. When I'm too old to ride at the top level, I'm going to devote my effort and time towards expanding this sport.

And why does location seem to matter so much? I can't figure out why the Pheonix Valley, population 5 million, doesn't seem to have a single trials rider. I've searched the internet and asked around all the local bike shops, and I haven't encountered a single rider. Yet the Denver area, population a little over 1.3 million probably has 15 or 20 riders.

Hmm... I'd love to see a demographics spread of trials riders.

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Coramoor

· #17 · Dec 24, 2003

Here in norway on the little island called Stord that I live on. There are 2 trials riders amongst 15000. that's 1 per 7500 people. That's a fairly high ratio isn't it? By spring times there might even be 3.

We have a norwegian trials forum with 53 users. I think at least 40 of them rides trials. There are a little under 5 million people in norway. Giving us a ratio of 1 per 125000 thousand.
Damn. That's even weaker than in the us.
But my island is good though :bigthumb:

warpig

· #18 · Dec 25, 2003

I can't figure out why the Pheonix Valley, population 5 million, doesn't seem to have a single trials rider. I've searched the internet and asked around all the local bike shops, and I haven't encountered a single rider.

We're here, we're just harder to find amongst 5 million people. We lost a few recently, some might return but who knows. If I ride in an area where XC riders or DH'ers can see me, they always seem to know of someone else that rides trials and ask if I know them. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't but our number is extremely small for the given population. Another factor is no one seems to stick together. A new rider will show up out of the clear blue via an internet inquiry, ride with us once, and then we never hear from them again. Our group is small and spread out (Flagstaff, Prescott, Tucson, and Bisbee) but we're here and riding and always trying to spread the word.

TooSicKs

· #19 · Dec 25, 2003

Well, I live in B-town, poupulation ~4000 if ya don't count the ppl who live outside of town but close, and we got 3 riders here now, and hope to have more soon. There's some ppl here in town working on acquiring trials bikes, so the scene may grow still. that's 1:1333 ratio of active riders.

I live in a trials paradise, everything is an obstacle starting from my front door. I'd have to say Bisbee is the sweetest place I've seen to ride. Tons of urban, natural, and good weather 350 days a year.

If any of you are ever down Bisbee way let me know, i'll ride with ya if i have a bike. Email or AIM me toosicks26 or check my site www.bisbeetrials.tk or go to www.trials-online.com and check the Rider Board in forums.

PEace

Simonk

· #20 · Dec 25, 2003

My house is a trials heaven. There are three people who live here and ONE THIRD of them do trials!!!! This has got to be by far the best trials scene on the planet since almost half of everyone does trials and everyone has heard about it!!.

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